V-Shaped But Full Recovery Is Long Off

Published Friday, June 12, 2020, 6 p.m. EST

After the disastrous -33.5% economic contraction ends in 16 days, the nation's leading economists expect the U.S. to grow 14.2% in the third quarter, according to the consensus forecast of 60 economists published in The Wall Street Journal today.

The upbeat results from the survey of more than 50 leading public- and private-sector economists contrast with a 5.9% plunge in the Standard & Poor's 500 index on Thursday and a resurgence of Coronavirus across southern and western U.S.

The survey was conducted in the past 10 days by The Journal and is evidence supporting the case that a strong recovery is likely but will be tempered by a slow return to the all-time peak in real gross domestic product of the fourth-quarter of 2019.

The S&P 500 rose +1.3% on Friday but was down -4.9% from last week. It's up 30.5% from the March 23rd bear market low, closing at 3,041.31.

The S&P 500 closed last Friday with a +4.8% weekly gain, The index had gained 3% a week earlier and 3.2% the week before.


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